UK WINTER WEATHER FORECASTS
For the third year running the forecast of dire
winter weather has been wrong. In the
past I quoted the Daily Mail headlining the gloom and doom predictions. This time I will pick out the Sunday Express
and The Telegraph to show no prejudice.
I have come to the conclusion that things never
seem to turn out as 'experts' predict. Doesn’t anyone ever call them to account or do
they just move on to predict the next catastrophe. Like when the boy who cried wolf too often,
one day when we really do need to take notice no one will.
THE BIG WET!
THE BIG WET!
In this neck of the woods, the Pennines of Yorkshire, it has been a sweeping cascade of horizontal rain almost daily since the beginning of November and I have yet to lift a snow shovel in anger. As I write it is a picture of waves of water sailing down the valley here. Non stop curtains of rain sweeping along, day after day and I am sick of it.
Lest we forget! -
Britain braced for long, snowy winter as strongest El Nino since 1950 expected
The strongest El Nino for 65 years could bring a winter like the 2009/2010 Big Freeze
Is Britain heading for a snowy, long winter? Photo: PA
4:09PM BST 14 Sep 2015
Winter is coming, and it could be colder
and snowier than normal after forecasters predicted that this year’s El
Nino weather phenomenon could be the strongest since 1950.
Met Office meteorologists said conditions could mirror those of the
2009/2010 winter which was so long and chilly it was dubbed ‘The Big
Freeze.’
That winter, heavy snowfall
brought transport chaos to much of the country with airports closed and
train services suspended. In parts of Scotland temperatures dropped to
-8.1F (-22.3C) as record 19 inch snowfall fell in the highlands. In
December that year, the average UK temperature was just 30F (-1C) the
coldest since records began.
This year's El Nino
looks set to be more powerful than usual with forecasters predicting
the strongest since 1950. In that year Britain suffered one of its
snowiest winters ever. Snow lay for 102 days in the Highlands while 15
inches fell on the Isle of Wight in just three and half hours.
Bournemouth saw 10 inches, Scarborough and Lowestoft, 14 inches.
The weather phenomenon happens when ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, near South America, rise due to a change in the normal wind direction, creating knock-on effects across the globe due to the amount of heat released into the atmosphere. The polar jet stream tends to move further south, and brings wetter weather across the Atlantic, which causes heavy rainfall in warmer months, but can bring snow in the winter.
Met Office meteorologist and BBC forecaster Thomas Shafernaker said: “This time round it could be the strongest in decades.
“In Europe sometimes winters end up much colder and drier and last much into spring. In 2010 the El Nino played a part in bringing huge amounts of snow to the UK.”
The Met Office believe they are now better placed to predict freak winter weather. Photo: Andrew Crowley
Met Office climatologist Dr Doug Smith said El Nino was one of the most important factors for the UK winter, but added that it was too early to tell just how big an impact the phenomenon would have on British weather. The 2010 storm was made worse because El Nino coincided with a solar minimum.
And because each El Nino event is unique, it is impossible to say exactly what the consequences will be for any given year. Dr Smith said the phenomenon was not linear and so a medium strength El Nino could actually cause more disruption than a strong one.
“It is one of the most important factors on our weather,” he said, “But there are other things such as the North Atlantic Osciallation and Sun output. It is not clear right now. We will know more in November.”
However this particular El Nino – known as a Modiki – does appear to be causing concern.
“The latest indication suggests in may be starting to move westwards and cooling near the South American coast,” said Leon Brown, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Channel. "This is then called a Modiki type El Nino with warm sea surface temperatures in the mid Pacific.
“If that happens then the impact may shift the jet stream and give us a greater risk of a colder negative North Atlantic Oscillation this winter, which usually brings us colder winters.”
A police car is seen as up to 40 cars were stranded on the A171 between Guisborough and Whitby in blizzard conditions Photo: Paul Kingston / NNP
El Nino - which means ‘the boy child’ because it was first observed at Christmas - is linked to major global climate events including monsoons in India, heavy rain and storms in North America and Europe including the UK, and floods in Australia. It occures every two to seven years and is already bringing havoc agross the globe.
Experts warned that Britain could be impacted by rising prices in coffee, rice, sugar and cocoa as staple crops in tropical regions are hit by flooding and droughts.
“We could see an increase in food prices,” said Dr Nicholas Klingaman of the University of Reading.
“Typically in response to an El Nino event we see crops rise by about five to 10 per cent, particularly for staple crops like sugar, rice, coffee and cocoa and that’s because El Nino causes floods and droughts in many tropical regions where these crops are grown.”
The weather phenomenon happens when ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, near South America, rise due to a change in the normal wind direction, creating knock-on effects across the globe due to the amount of heat released into the atmosphere. The polar jet stream tends to move further south, and brings wetter weather across the Atlantic, which causes heavy rainfall in warmer months, but can bring snow in the winter.
Met Office meteorologist and BBC forecaster Thomas Shafernaker said: “This time round it could be the strongest in decades.
“In Europe sometimes winters end up much colder and drier and last much into spring. In 2010 the El Nino played a part in bringing huge amounts of snow to the UK.”
The Met Office believe they are now better placed to predict freak winter weather. Photo: Andrew CrowleyMet Office climatologist Dr Doug Smith said El Nino was one of the most important factors for the UK winter, but added that it was too early to tell just how big an impact the phenomenon would have on British weather. The 2010 storm was made worse because El Nino coincided with a solar minimum.
And because each El Nino event is unique, it is impossible to say exactly what the consequences will be for any given year. Dr Smith said the phenomenon was not linear and so a medium strength El Nino could actually cause more disruption than a strong one.
“It is one of the most important factors on our weather,” he said, “But there are other things such as the North Atlantic Osciallation and Sun output. It is not clear right now. We will know more in November.”
However this particular El Nino – known as a Modiki – does appear to be causing concern.
“The latest indication suggests in may be starting to move westwards and cooling near the South American coast,” said Leon Brown, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Channel. "This is then called a Modiki type El Nino with warm sea surface temperatures in the mid Pacific.
“If that happens then the impact may shift the jet stream and give us a greater risk of a colder negative North Atlantic Oscillation this winter, which usually brings us colder winters.”
A police car is seen as up to 40 cars were stranded on the A171 between Guisborough and Whitby in blizzard conditions Photo: Paul Kingston / NNPEl Nino - which means ‘the boy child’ because it was first observed at Christmas - is linked to major global climate events including monsoons in India, heavy rain and storms in North America and Europe including the UK, and floods in Australia. It occures every two to seven years and is already bringing havoc agross the globe.
Experts warned that Britain could be impacted by rising prices in coffee, rice, sugar and cocoa as staple crops in tropical regions are hit by flooding and droughts.
“We could see an increase in food prices,” said Dr Nicholas Klingaman of the University of Reading.
“Typically in response to an El Nino event we see crops rise by about five to 10 per cent, particularly for staple crops like sugar, rice, coffee and cocoa and that’s because El Nino causes floods and droughts in many tropical regions where these crops are grown.”
El Nino yes, but how could they make such a bad judgement
about its effect? I have a friend in Canada complaining she has
hardly been able to wear her ear muffs this winter as it has been so mild. I am mortified the expert weather forecasters have got it so wrong
as I have now no hope of persuading her that her obsession with 'man made global warming' is
another fantasy.
So again, at length - The Sunday Express version - (Why do they fill the front page with speculation?)
Coldest winter for 50 YEARS set to bring MONTHS of heavy snow to UK
BRITAIN is facing the most savage winter in more than 50 years with months of heavy snowfall and bitter Arctic winds set to bring the country to a total standstill.
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GETTYEmergency services have been warned to prepare for a repeat of the devastating 1962/63 winter which saw rivers and lakes freeze over across Britain.
The shock warnings have also sparked fears Britain could face fuel and food shortages as roads and transport networks grind to a halt.
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Emergency services have been warned to prepare for a repeat of the devastating winter of 1962/63
Temperatures in the Gulf Stream - the warm ocean current which runs up the east coast of America - have plummeted over the past year.
The stream merges into the North Atlantic Drift which normally pushes warm water towards the west coast of the United Kingdom.
However a drastic reduction in speed and temperature of the current has left Britain without any buffer to a bitter Arctic influx.
Experts fear a repeat of the worst winter in history which saw temperatures plunge to near -20C in January 1963 causing the sea to freeze off the Kent coast.
That went on to be the coldest month since January 1814, with an average temperature of −2.1C.
PA
He said experts had feared an especially severe winter last year after signs emerged during the autumn.
However a ‘lag effect’ helped narrowly dodge a crippling whiteout although this winter now threatens to bring the much-feared mega-freeze.
Mr Madden said the big chill could start to tighten its grip as soon as next month thanks in part to abnormally low solar activity.
He said: “October is likely to see a real chill at times in terms of temperatures due to below-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and a virtually non-existent Gulf Stream.
“This is of some real significance to us in terms of future weather patterns and this is also likely to result in a much colder than average November with the first significant snow of the year in parts of the north.
“There will also be some snow to much lower levels of the country at times within this period, and even parts of the south could see some early snow before we enter December this year.”
However the coming months are is showing signs of putting 2015/16 into the record books for all the wrong reasons.
Mr Madden said: “The Gulf Stream started showing signs of waning towards the end of last year, and it should have impacted our winter with some much colder and snowier conditions than it actually did.
“However there is an important lag effect with this process that should be taken very seriously for later this autumn and for the upcoming winter of 2015/16, the overall situation has worsened.
“This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how this heats this vital ocean current, and even more so as to how it impacts our long term weather patterns in terms of blocking and frequent cold incursions.
“Exceptional winds are also part and parcel of these Gulf Stream changes and this is also something that will be problematic at times throughout the upcoming autumn and winter periods once again.”
Discovery ChannelFresh water floats on top of the ocean saltwater hindering the normal currents which are driven by a constant sinking of cold water to the ocean bed.
This has slowed down the pace at which the Gulf Stream channels warm water from the Caribbean, up the coast of the US, and to north Europe.
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said it has slowed by between 15 and 20 per cent.
This has resulted in cooling equivalent to switching off a million power stations with possible catastrophic effects this winter.
Professor Rahmstorf said: “There is more than a 99 per cent probability that this slowdown is unique over the period we looked at since 900 AD.
“We conclude that the slowdown many have described is in fact already underway and it is outside of any natural variation.”
PAA spokesman said: “More settled conditions are possible late in September and into October but many places will still be likely to see some rain.
“Temperatures are likely to be around or a little below normal throughout.”
The UK climate this winter could also be nudged out of kilter by what is shaping up to be the strongest El Nino ever recorded.
The phenomenon, which sees ocean temperatures rise in the eastern Pacific, can result in colder winters in the UK and northern Europe.
If fears are realised then this year could see a repeat of some of the worst winters in British history leading to disruption at airports, on railways and on the roads.
It also means the emergency services risk being stretched to breaking point with harsh weather responsible for thousands of deaths annually.
N&SCrippling blizzards whipped up 20-feet deep snow drifts with freezing Arctic gales unleashing winds of more than 100mph in parts.
A similar whiteout in 1946/47 led to fuel and food shortages before a March thaw brought devastating floods and caused billions of pounds of damage.
Forecasters had expected colder conditions over the past two which turned out to be milder, albeit stormier than average.
This year could see volatile conditions coupled with plunging temperatures trigger one of the most severe winters on record.
Jud Partin, research associate at the University of Texas Institute of Geophysics, warned Britain and northern Europe could be shivering in years to come thanks to ocean cooling.
He said: “A slowdown of the ocean circulation is a double-edged sword.
“If we see some temperature changes associated with it … and somehow are quick to act and alleviate the change, then we have the potential to stop it.”
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